Iraq War: Aftermath of US Withdrawal

Iraq War afterwardmath of US WithdrawalIRAQI SPAT HOOD IN POST AGGRESSION ENVIRONMENT intromissionThe ancient civilization Iraq, offici each(prenominal) toldy the Re universe of Iraq (Al Jumhuriyah-Al- Irakia in Arabic), is a country in south- westerly Asia. This great civilization had been humiliated and devastated by the invasion of many, and recently the unify States-led coalition militarys. The Second Gulf War popularly known as The Iraq War took place from 20 March to 08 April 2003. The war itself may be regarded as a sequel to the First Gulf War fought in 1991. Ameri cornerstones named the war Operation Iraki Freedom, (OIF). Military action led by the United States against the administration of Saddam Hussein, the authoritarian leader of Iraq. Announcing the beginning of the war, United States President George W Bush explained that the goals were to Disarm Iraq to free its people. Though President Bush decl ard on 01 whitethorn 2003 that the major combat operations in Ir aq had been over, yet many would argue that the war in Iraq has not ended. It is more evident when the coalition forces are engaged in fierce guerrillas who all are put inively applying the hit and run tactics and casualties on United States soldiers are on the rise.The Coalition Forces (CF) invaded Iraq in total defiance of international opinion. There had been a wide-ranging scepticism about the United Statess fountain for initiating this war. The coalition gained a military advantage against a nation that had been suffering due to United tribes imposed sanctions for the last 12 years. The military outcome in Iraq War was never in doubt, yet any success seems widely premature for several reasons. Even in Iraq it is not at all clear at this charge whether the sequel to warfare will be a smooth transition to a peaceful and democratic Iraq or a descent into civil war. This institution led to many desired and undesired outcomes. It is certain that the war in Iraq and the post-wa r situation havewide ranging effects on the countrys future. afterwards the national election, now it is the probable time for United States forces to withdraw. But still the Iraqi Army, National Guard and Police could not act very effectively.After the election now situation of Iraq has got a new dimension. political and military events though are inse equatingable in war this paper will shine up the pre war Iraq, future prospects and possibilities of Iraq after the departure of collation force.AIMThe aim of this paper is to analyze the pre war situation of Iraq and the likely future conditions after withdrawal method of United States forces.AN ACCOUNT OF PRE WAR IRAQSocialAbout 75 portion of the population of Iraq is Arab. Kurds, d come uping in the highlands of northern Iraq, constitute 15 to 20 percent of the population. Smaller groups include Turkmens, Jews, Armenians, and Assyrians. Arabic is the official language of Iraq and is spoken by the majority of the population. Th e Kurds speak Kurdish. Armenian and Assyrian are spoken in unsophisticated areas in the north and west. Iraq is a pilgrimage site for Shia Muslims. Muslims make up 96 percent of Iraqs population. About 60 to 65 percent of the Muslims dumbfound to the Shia branch, and the rest adhere to the Sunni branch. The Shias live well-nighly in central and southern Iraq, and the Sunnis live principally in the north. Most of the Kurds are Sunnis. some(prenominal) of the holy cities of the Shias, notably An Najaf and Karbal, are situated in Iraq.EconomicThe modern Iraqi economy has been largely based on petroleum. Most of the few large manufacturing industries have to do with vegetable oil. During Husseins rule the Iraqi economy was adversely affected by four major factors the war with Iran during the 1980s, an international oil glut in the 1980s and 1990s, the economic sanctions imposed by the United Nations (UN) after the invasion of Kuwait in 1990, and the Persian Gulf War in 1991. The co mbined effect of all these factors was the destruction of Iraqs basic infrastructure (roads, bridges, power grids, and the like) and the countrys financial bankruptcy.The UN sanctions created widespread unemployment, skyrocketing inflation, and severe shortages of previously imported commodities, including medicine, medical equipment, wight vaccines, farm machinery, electrimetropolis-generating equipment, and water purification supplies. As a result of these shortages and the damage done to water and sewage treatment systems during the war, the incidence of disease and malnutrition rose sharply.politicalThe leading political organization in Iraq under Saddam Hussein was the Arab Baath Socialist Party, which bases its policies on pan-Arab and socialist principles. Other political groups include the Iraqi commie Party (ICP), the Kurdistn Democratic Party (KDP), The United Iraqi Alliance, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistn (PUK), and a few other Kurdish parties. The two most important Sh ia opposition parties are the Dawa Islamic Party and the compulsory Assembly of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SAIRI). Until Husseins overthrow, all these opposition parties were illegal outside the Kurdish autonomous region. Following the US invasion, another political group, the Iraqi National Congress led by Ahmad Chalabi, emerged as an important political force. The Baath Party remained a legaland open party. However, the US administrator for Iraq banned some high-level Baath Party phalluss from employment in the public sector.STRATEGY OF UNITED STATES AND COALITION AGGRESSIONBy other(a) March 2003 it became clear that the administration of US death chair George W Bush was intent on military action against Iraq. The Bush administration asserted that Iraq possessed chemical weapons, had accelerated its program to make biological weapons, and was agilely seeking materials to make thermonuclear weapons. The US administration feared that Hussein could provide weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups for use against the United States.In subsequent speeches and reports President Bush and his administration made the case for preemptive military action to avoid such a potential threat. If we wait for threats to fully materialize, we will have waited too long, President Bush verbalize in June 2002. To make the case for military action against Iraq in his January 2002 State of the Union speech in which he identified Iraq as a member of an axis of evil threatening global trade protection.In his January 2003 State of the Union address, President Bush cited reports that Hussein had attempted to buy significant quantities of uranium from Africa as well as special aluminum tubes in order to produce nuclear weapons. Bush administration officials also asserted that the establishment of a new, democratic authorities in Iraq could pave the way for peace in the Middle easternmost and the spread of democracy among Arab nations.The war began on 20 March. The i nvasion of Iraq, dubbed Operation Iraqi Freedom by the White House, was led by General Tommy Franks, then head of the US Central Command. The coalition force consisted of a U.S.force that ab initio numbered about 200,000 personnel (eventually expandingto 290,000), as well as about 50,000 British personnel, about 2,000 Australian troops, and about 200 Polish soldiers.The U.S. military made frequently greater use of precise, high-tech weaponry than in the Persian GulfWar. In 2003 coalition force used satellite-guided bombs and advanced drones (unmanned aerial vehicles) for reconnaissance.In early April the US force, its supply lines secured, moved in on capital of Iraq. On 4 April 2003 Army forces seized Saddam International Airport, west of the city, and renamed it Baghdad International Airport. On 5 April a battalion from the 2nd Brigade of the 3rd Infantry Division drove through Baghdad in a raid. More than 1,000 Iraqis were reported killed during the operation, correspond to a US estimate. On 7 April 2003 the 2nd Brigade attacked into central Baghdad. The same day, US B-1 bombers dropped four 900-kg (2,000-lb) bombs on a building in western Baghdad where Hussein was believed to be hiding. Nevertheless, Husseins grip on power was gone. US Marines arrived in Baghdad on 9 April 2003 and helped Iraqi civilians commove down a massive statue of Saddam Hussein that towered over a major city square. Within a few days Marines captured Tikrit, a city north of Baghdad and Husseins ancestral home, with little struggle. President Bush declared an end to combat operations on 1 May 2003. Nevertheless, the guerrilla war against the coalition occupation continued till today.IRAQI RESISTANCE WARInsurgents have killed at least 29 US and sextette British military personnel since the US President, George Bush, declared an End to combat operations in Iraq on May 1. The violence has been concentrated in Baghdad and the so-called Sunni triangle west and north of the capital, a n area inhabited mainly by Saddam Husseins fellow Sunni Arabs, a minority in Iraq. Attacks under shell out of crowds are less risky for the assailant. Theonly defence against them is maintaining strict separation between coalition troops and the civilian population apparently one of the insurgents aims. The Iraqi resistance to US occupation is growing, as is its support among ordinary Iraqis.Iraqs interim administration recently admitted that the insurgency involves at least 40,000 hardcore fighters and up to 200,000 active sympathizersa far cry from the isolated 5,000 Baathist remnants and foreign fighters the Pentagon initially claimed to be fighting. They are effectively using the hit and run tactics on the coalition force. ordinary ELECTIONSAt the beginning of 2005 after 50 years, 30 January 2005 general election took place. In this election Shia supported United Iraqi Alliances earn the majority and phase the basic democratic government. The Kurdish Leader Jalal Talebani e lected as President and Shia leader Ibrahim Al Jaffrai nominated as Prime minister. After that the government fails to guarantee the national integrity. Ruther government ignites the conflict. In the proposed constitution government neglect the affaire of Sunni Muslim. After a long debate 28 August 2005 government gestural the draft constitution and arranges the general election on this constitution. In that election within the 18 provinces government won in 15 provinces and lost in resttree. With this result the Sunni could not change the constriction. The Shia Sunni conflict increase in this volatile situation.International Opinions. US and British officials repeatedly warned Iraqs political parties that in a democratic election there are winner and looser. Same time they hope that Iraqi leader set up a coalition governmentto help the undermine Sunni support for the insurgency. Now to bring them in the same platform the government have to keep the interest of the Sunni.INTERNAL SITUATIONPoliticalPresently in Iraq Shia and Sunni conflict turn into a worst situation. At 21 February 2006 there was a big boom explosion in Shia mosque AL Aksari in Samara city. It starts the riot in Bagdad. In whole country at least 90 Sunni mosques was attacked by Sunnis. After this incident there is a possibility of civil war. The main political party of Sunni complains that at least 50 mosques in Bagdad city were attacked by Shia. Iraqi president Jalal Talebani asks all to casing the situation together and stop the risk of civil war. A month after the general election, political parties are still waiting for results and are jockeying for position ahead of the start of serious bargaining on the make up of the countrys first full time government since the finalise of Saddam Hussein. Initial indications showed that Iraqs Shiite(A branch of Shia Muslim) majority come out on top in the 15 Decembers vote besides final results dew in the coming days, have been delayed by a probe into complaints by Sunni backed and secular party of ballot rigging. Recently the Iraqi parties started negotiation on a national unity government after rebels launched concentred attack in western Iraq to coincide with the release of election result. The election were attach by voting along ethnic and sectarist lines with the shia religious based United Iraqi Alliance, which includes prime minister Ibrahim Jaafaris DawaParty and Abdul Aziz Hakims Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, winning 128 of parliaments 275 states.EconomicFollowing the US Iraq War of 2003, the US spent billions of dollars to revive Iraqs oil industry. By March 2004 Iraq was producing about 2.5 million barrels of oil per day, nearly as much as it produced prior to the 2003 war. The US expenditures were also aimed at restoring and upgrading Iraqs oil fields and refineries. Much of the work was contracted to U.S. andother foreign oil companies, under the supervision of the US civil administrator.So cialAfter the attack of coalition force now Iraqis are facing the hard strike of poverty. A resent study by the United Nation Development Programme and international Monetary Fund shows that 20 percent of the population has followen below the international poverty line of one dollar par day par person. The member of the families registering for assistancewith the labor and social affairs ministry has more then tripled since the war to 171000 and even that according to the ministry Drop in the ocean.FUTURE TRENDSAfter the withdrawal of coalition force, the first to suffer will be the people of Iraq. Due to the Shia Sunni conflict general mass will face human suffering. Each and every day the list of casualty getting longer and longer. Various terrorist / insurgence group are still active. Police force or security force is not well organized. After withdrawal of US forces the law and order situation will be in a feeble condition. Insurgency, political revenge and arms conflict betwe en various political or religious groups willincrease. Police force or security force require time to organize, equipped and trained them.In this movement various political parties came up and participated in general election. Rashid Khalidi, director of the Middle East Institute atColumbia University said just before the election They will have a Shia-dominated, Islamic-oriented government in Iraq. Now situation is not balance. Shia dominated party gets the clear majority in the election, could not make the situation stable. Conflict of Shia and Sunni heading towards a civil war. There may be situation the whole country will divided as per their ethics. Recently they started attacked on there religious centers. Standing on this crisis situation Iraqi president Jalal Talebani asks all to face the situation together and stop the risk of civil war.Recently the Iraqi political parties started negotiation on a national unity government after rebels launched concentred attack in western Iraq tocoincide with the release of election result. The election were marked by voting along ethnic and sectarian lines with the Shia religious based United Iraqi Alliance, which includes prime minister Ibrahim Jaafaris Dawa Party.CONCLUSIONIraq War has once again proved that there cannot be a military solution to a political problem. Though US Doctrine of Pre-emption has changed world security perspective, it also cautions that war against world opinion can be a disaster. More equipment-intensive future battlefield warrants modernization of the army. It has also proved that the most hightech war also cannot be bloodless. Several thousands Iraqis were killed and wounded. Lately US loss is also quite significant. A good plan shouldalso encompass all aspects of war from the battle itself to the rebuilding phase, where the arm Forces will be a relevant player. The post conflictscenario for the army is equally challenging against the insurgence and guerrilla group.The post-war situat ion in Iraq is frustrating. The political process for the smooth transition to democracy is in question. The reconstruction process is unbearably slow for the people of the war torn country. The on going high strong suit of guerrilla war and aggressive counter insurgency operation are aggravating the sufferings of the people further. The peace and stability of Iraq and the region is highly uncertain.The war consume Iraq is facing a total disorder. Reconstruction of Iraq is now the biggest challenge. The public service are to be restored, supply of food, medicine and other essential commodities are to be ensured. Sufferings of the mass people cannot be reducing at a time but a smoothpolitical situation will be the first priority to achieve social and economical establishment.RECOMMENDATIONSPolitical parties should have mutual trust between them. They should come to a same platform on the interest of their country.Soon they should form the coalition government and start reconstructi ons of war offended country.Various political parties should give the highest priority to their national interest keeping a side their UN ethical interest.They should take help of ether countries to develop their own security force.Government should take to solve the Insurgency problem.Bhatiary ,Chittagong IMTIAZ MAHMUDBIBLIOGRAPHYBooks1.Bruce W. Watson, Military Lessons of the Gulf War, (Lahore Izharsons Printers, 1992).2.J C Aggarwal, Golf Crisis Pre War And post War Scenario,(INDIA S Chand Company)3. Robert F Helms,The Persian Gulf Crisis Power in the post Cold War World ( capital of the United Kingdom Wesport, Connecticut.)Journals / Magazines/ Newspaper4.Daily Star January, February 20065.Burger, Kim, Caught off guard? Janes Defence Weekly, October 01, 2003.6.Elliott, Michael, So, What Went Wrong? Time Magazine, October 06, 2003.7.Robinson, Simon, Baghdad Today Progress, Inch by Inch, Time Magazine, October 06, 2003.8.Ripley, Tim, Mean Streets, Janes Defence Weekly, October 15, 2003.Reports9.Lt Gen T. Michael Moseley, Operation IRAQI FREEDOM-By the Numbers (Assessment and Analysis Division, USCENTAF, 30 April 2003).Official Document10.Army Headquarters Project Study Paper by 46 strong-minded Infantry Brigade, Iraq War A Review, Dhaka, 2003.Web Sites11.www.bbc.com12.www.army.com